AUD Cash Rate – Interest rate for overnight money market deposits

AUD/USD

Looks like 11 economists say they will leave the rate at 3.75, 12 say they will drop it to 3.5, and 4 say they will drop it to 3.25%. This will be cause for a wild ride. Here are the two things most likely to happen. The highest odds are that they will lower the rate by .25%. This will cause a spike down. They could also lower it by .5 causing a much bigger spike down, though this is much less likely. Or they could leave it where it is, which would cause a spike up. But I think this is far less likely, though not impossible.
Here is what I am planning to do. I will do a sellOnly on this. If they wind up leaving rates the same, it will spike up and I will miss it. I’m willing to take that chance. It is far more likely rates will go down again.
As always, be ever vigilant for premature spikes. If you are doing a sellOnly, you don’t care about premature spikes up, only down. If you are trading in both directions, you care about both. Also don’t be surprised if the spread gets wider than usual. Might even want to compensate for that in your settings. Also I would recommend getting out right after the spike unless it comes out at .5.