AUD Employment Change

9:30 PM EDT

AUD Employment Change – Change in the number of employed people for the prior month.

AUD/USD

In January, I’m told (I was reveling in Mexico at my daughters wedding) it spiked down 28 pips on a deviation of -9.5 and 0. The data came out at 4 seconds after the posted time. After a minute it retraced about 50% and stayed there.

In February, there was a 10 pip spike down at 4 seconds BEFORE the posted time. Most trades had not been entered yet. This is the reason you don’t want your trades going in too early. The 2 orders went in OK and at 1 second after, it spiked up 18. The deviation was 4.4 and -.1. Row 1 came out at 3 seconds after as a small buy and row 2 at 5 seconds after as a buy also. Then at 6 seconds after, it flinched down 15 pips, taking most of us out, then back up 15 at 7 seconds after. Most were taken out by then.

In March it came out at 61.5 and -.1 with a 48 pip spike.
There was very little retracement and continuation to about 65 pips in 6 minutes.


You should expect the initial news related spike to happen at about 2 seconds after the posted time, and the news to come out at 3 seconds after. Watch out for spikes before the news is due out. I usually set
It would be great if we saw a deviation like the one in March, but that is unlikely. But even a deviation of 15 or 20 on row 1 should inspire a decent move.

US Non-Farm Employment Change

8:30 AM EDT

US Non-Farm Employment Change – Change in the number of employed people for the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

EUR/JPY

Well, here we are again. If you like wild rides, this is the trade for you.
You might also consider trying the USD/JPY or EUR/USD for this one instead of the EUR/JPY, as last month they were much less volatile

In January it came out at 5 and -.1 with a 13 pip spike with instant full retracement. This deviation (5) is extremely small.

In February we saw -8 and .1. -8 is also an extremely small deviation for this trade, however that did not prevent it from spiking 51 pips. Oddly, the spike did not occur till a couple seconds after the news came out, and most accounts were taken out due to the low deviation (which is exactly what we wanted). It then retraced all the way back and then pushed down again 100 pips. NFP causes some weird behavior in the market.

In March we saw 71 and -.2 (ahhh that’s more like it) with a 50 pip spike. It was real jumpy before the trade. It retraced 50% right quick (which is usually enough to take many trades out due to hitting stop losses, take profit levels, and/or trailing stops) and then thrashed up and down a bit after that.

EUR Minimum Bid Rate

7:45 AM EDT

EUR Minimum Bid Rate – Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide liquidity to the banking system

EUR/USD

54 out of 56 economists say it will remain at 0.75%, and 2 say it will drop to 0.50%. I know they are talking about how long they ought to wait before lowering it, but it is highly unlikely that will happen tomorrow. Wouldn’t be surprised though if we start to see more and more economists thinking that it will drop over the next couple months.

The statement for this is not till 8:30 AM.
It is not unusual for the data to not come out for 12 seconds after the posted time.

UK Official Bank Rate

7:00 AM EDT

UK Official Bank Rate – Interest rate at which banks lend to each other.

GBP/USD

50 out of 50 economists say this will remain at 0.50%. The statement is tentatively set for 7:00 AM also. So you can trade the news or the statement. If you are trading the statement, you simply leave your trades in to see if the statement causes any strong movement one way or the other within 15 to 30 seconds.

Trades for Week of March 31 – April 5, 2013

Wed 4/3 8:30 PM – AUD Retail Sales

Thu 4/4 4:28 AM – UK Services PMI

Thu 4/4 7:00 AM – UK Official Bank Rate

Thu 4/4 7:45 AM – EUR Minimum Bid Rate

Fri 4/5 8:30 AM – US Non-Farm Employment Change

Fri 4/5 8:30 AM – CAD Employment Change

AUD Retail Sales – Change in the total value of sales at the retail level

AUD/USD
8:30 PM EDT

This has been a decent mover of late. The Building Approvals comes out at the same time. Keep an eye on this, but don’t worry too much about it. It would be nice to see it come out in the same direction.

In January we saw -.4 with a 15 pip spike (I’m told. I was packing for Mexico at the time.), small retrace of 4 or 5, and continuation to about 30 in 12 minutes.

In February we saw -.5 and -.2 with a 22 pip spike, slight retracement, and continuation to 40 pips slowly over 30 minutes. The spike happened at 2 seconds and the data came out at 3 seconds after the posted time.

In March we saw .5 with an 18 pip spike, small retracement, and slight continuation to 22 pips in 7 minutes before falling all the way back in 3 more minutes. The spike happened at 2 seconds and the data came out at 3 seconds after the posted time.

UK Retail Sales – Change in the value of sales at the retail level

4:30 AM EDT
GBP/USD

In March this came out at -.3 and -1.3 with a 33 pip spike. In April we saw 1.1 and 1.5 (huge deviations) with a 30 pip spike. In May we saw -.3 and -1 with a 27 pip spike.

As long as we see a good deviation at this release, we should see a nice spike. Anything at .3 or higher will cause a decent move.

NZD GDP q/q – Change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy

6:45 PM EDT  
NZD/USD

In September this came out at -.4 and -.2 with a 46 pip spike, 25% retracement, and continuation to 60 pips in 6 minutes. In March it came out at -.3 and -.4 with a 30 pip spike. The problem was that it was very volatile 5 or 6 seconds before the trade and the data came out 3 seconds EARLY, causing the spike to happen 3 seconds before the posted time. It did spike nicely, retraced very little, and continued to 55 pips in 4 minutes.
This has had some decent moves in the recent past but you never know. In the best case it will come out on time with nice deviation.
Be carefull for early movement lets say 1 minute before the trade. If that is the case get out fast.

Trades for week of June 17 thru 22, 2012

Tue 6/19 4:30 AM – UK CPI y/y 
Wed 6/20 6:45 PM – NZD GDP q/q (Straddle)
Thu 6/21 4:30 AM – UK Retail Sales (Straddle)
Thu 6/21 8:30 AM – CAD Core Retail Sales
Fri 6/22 8:30 AM – CAD Core CPI

The UK Retail Sales is the best opportunity this week.

Trades for this week

There are just two trades this week. None of them is a great trade, so it is up to you whether to trade them or to taka a rest from the news trading this week.

Wed 6/13 8:30 AM – US Core Retail Sales    
Wed 6/13 5:00 PM – NZD Official Cash Rate